The Lancet Commission on 21st-Century Global Health Threats


Through robust scientific analysis and dialogue, we aim to identify the factors and themes that have the greatest potential impact on population health through to 2050 and beyond, and understand common strategies that cut across these threats that can be used to reduce risk at the national, regional, and global level. 


1. Utilize

Utilize the Global Burden of Disease and related reference health forecasts as the basis for active debate, considering global and regional health threats from multiple perspectives. 

2. Explore

Explore through alternative forecasting scenarios how policy strategies can bend the curve for regional and global threats.

3. Search

Search for common solutions to global and regional health threats that can increase the prospect that the world will be able to tackle these emerging threats. 

4. Produce

Produce an evidence-based roadmap that governments, donors, and other stakeholders can use to translate findings into investment priorities.

Leadership and structure

The Commission will be co-chaired by Dr. Natalia Kanem (Executive Director, UNFPA) and Dr. Christopher Murray (Director, IHME). 

There are approximately 30 Commissioners representing a diversity of perspectives to find cross-cutting tools and solutions for future threats.

Final recommendations will be published in The Lancet in late 2024. Results will also be disseminated to national and global decision-makers.